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Improved HAB Detection and Forecasting (IOOS/GLIMO project)

Improved HAB Detection and Forecasting (IOOS/GLIMO project)

Abstract

Gulf of Mexico (GOM) harmful algal blooms (HABs) of the toxic algae Karenia brevis are responsible for shellfish bed closures, fish kills, dolphin and manatee deaths, and respiratory distress in people. These HABs, publicly known as “red tides”, occur annually on the Florida Gulf Coast and directly impact the public and the shellfish industries. Public health officials, the seafood industry, coastal managers, and Chambers of Commerce need precise information on the current and projected location of these HABs

While we have made significant improvements in detection and monitoring of blooms and in predicting any response, resulting in the NOAA operational HAB Forecast System (HAB FS), the current prediction capabilities are effectively “binary” and lack discrimination. Initial onset and intensification of a HAB is predicted based on occurrence of upwelling favorable winds (vs. no onset with downwelling winds), with virtually no data on offshore presence. Transport, when predicted, is either north or south, depending on wind direction, with no magnitude. In some areas with long straight coasts 7% of wind speed is used, but that is problematic along much of SW Florida, owing to coastline irregularities and presence of major estuaries. Respiratory irritation is predicted when onshore winds are predicted. Compensation does not exist for wind magnitude, or variation through the day with the sea breeze. Better prediction of HABs has a direct bearing on public safety, on the tourism industry, on the management of endangered species (manatees), and on the fishing and aquaculture industries. As a result of this study these deficiencies will be addressed by demonstrating and implementing:

  • improved models of landfall and transport of HABs
  • improved prediction of respiratory irritation
  • improved identification of red tide in specific areas

Objectives

Better prediction of HABs has a direct bearing on the tourism industry, public health and safety, fishing and aquaculture industries, and on the management of endangered species. 

To improve prediction of this HAB, the project objectives are:

  • Improve forecasts, provided through the existing NOS Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast System of the likelihood of respiratory distress at specific beaches.
  • Locate and forecast landfall of K. brevis blooms before they reach the shore, including offshore subsurface blooms not identifiable by existing satellite and state sampling.
  • Effectively integrate advanced new technologies--developed by a variety of agencies and institutions--with existing observing systems and models to demonstrate the practical benefits of an integrated ocean observing system (IOOS) for a significant coastal management issue. 
  • Evaluate the tangible benefits and implementation costs of biological sensor enhancements to NOS water level stations and NWS coastal meteorological stations. 

Time Frame

2007.

For More Information

Project Manager:
Richard.Stumpf@noaa.gov
1305 East West Highway
SSMC-IV, N/SCI-1
Silver Spring, MD 20910
301-713-3028 x173